Time series models based on growth curves with applications to forecasting coronavirus

Time series models are developed for predicting future values of a variable which when cumulated is subject to an unknown saturation level. Such models are relevant for many disciplines, but here attention is focussed on the spread of epidemics and the applications are for coronavirus. The time series models are relatively simple but are such that their specification can be assessed by standard statistical test procedures. In the generalized logistic class of models, the logarithm of the growth rate of the cumulative series depends on a time trend. Allowing this trend to be time-varying introduces further flexibility and enables the effects of changes in policy to be tracked and evaluated

The Business Cycle, Macroeconomic Shocks and the Cross Section: Evidence from UK Quoted Companies

Co-movements and correlations in the major macroeconomic aggregates has been the focus of much of the recent literature in business cycle research. In this paper we provide another dimension to business cycle analysis. We examine the evolution of the cross sectional distribution of the growth of UK quoted companies from 1968 to 1997 and find correlations between aggregate business cycle fluctuations and the higher moments of the cross sectional distribution. To explain this we analyse the sensitivity of firms to aggregate shocks, conditioning growth on firm size, age and industry. We find that the contemporaneous effects of aggregate shocks, both positive and negative, are significantly more pronounced for firms in the middle range of growth. This explains the cycle-related patterns in the moments of the growth rate cross section. These findings are of importance in understanding firm level as well as business cycle dynamics.

Game theoretic pricing models in hotel revenue management: an equilibrium choice-based conjoint analysis approach

This paper explores a game-theoretically founded approach to conjoint analysis that determines equilibrium room rates under differentiated price competition in an oligopolistic hotel market. Competition between hotels is specified in terms of market share functions that can be estimated using multinomial logit models of consumer choice. The approach is based on choice-based conjoint analysis that permits the estimation of attributes weights (“part-worths”) for an additive utility formulation of the utility function. From this, room rates that equilibrate the market, conditioned on the differences in services and facilities offered by competing hotels, can be determined. The approach is illustrated by an example

Tracking the mutant: forecasting and nowcasting covid-19 in the UK in 2021

A new class of time series models is used to track the progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK in early 2021. Models are fitted to England and the regions, as well as to the UK as a whole. The growth rate of the daily number of cases and the instantaneous reproduction number are computed regularly and compared with those produced by SAGE. The results from figures published each day are compared with results based on figures by specimen date, which may be more accurate but are subject to substantial revisions. It is then shown how data from the two different sources can be combined in bivariate models.AH is grateful to the University of Cambridge Keynes Fund for support on the project Persistence and Forecasting in Climate and Environmental Econometrics

Management succession and success in a professional soccer team

Research into sports team performance has shown that across many sports and league competitions, teams that change their coaches after a decline in performance do rebound, but fare no better on average than teams that have not changed their coach in a similar situation. A similar lack of succession benefits has been reported in studies of manager and CEO succession: it has not been established that changing a team's leader improves a declining team's performance. We study the effect of a change of coach on the performance of a professional soccer team. Based on rarely obtained access to a whole season (one year) of daily close observation of the team and coaching staff in practice and matches, this study uses quantitative and qualitative data to go beyond the "average" pattern reported in the literature. We document in detail how, in a single team case study over an entire season, the processes in leadership behavior changed with a change of coach, the effect this had on the state of mind of the team, how the match behaviors of the players changed, and how these changes translated into improved performance. The process effects of a leadership change on the performance of a sports team may hold insights for leader succession in management: in addition to the aggregate organizational and experience fit of the new team leader, the specific leadership processes introduced by the new leader are critical for performance effects

Income inequality and price elasticity of market demand: the case of crossing Lorenz curves

© 2017 The Author(s)This paper extends Ibragimov and Ibragimov (Econ Theory 32:579–587, 2007) in which the effect of changes income inequality on the price elasticity of market demand is characterized for the class of income distribution changes occurring through non-intersecting Lorenz curve shifts. We derive sufficient conditions for increase/decrease in price elasticity of market demand, under general changes in income distribution, allowing Lorenz curves to intersect as they shift. We conclude by drawing out implications of different types of tax policy changes for demand elasticity

The euro and price convergence in Central and Eastern Europe

We examine the effect of the adoption of the Euro by Central and Eastern European countries, on the convergence of their prices vis-à-vis the Eurozone. Allowing for staggered adoption, we estimate the Euro treatment effect using a difference-in-differences approach. We find strong and robust, positive convergence effects, albeit with some heterogeneity